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Uncertainty

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Definitions[]

Uncertainty is

“ [the] degree to which a calculated, estimated, or observed value may deviate from the true value.[1] ”
“ [a] condition, event, outcome, or circumstance of which the extent, value, or consequence is not predictable.[2] ”
“ the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of an event, its consequence, or likelihood.[3] ”
“ The inability to know in advance the exact likelihood or impact of future events.[4] ”
“ [t]he state of being not known, indeterminate, questionable, variable.[5] ”

Overview[]

Uncertainty may stem from many causes, including the lack of information. The concept of uncertainty is useful in understanding that likelihoods and consequences can oftentimes not be predicted with a high degree of precision or accuracy.[6]

References[]

  1. ↑ DHS Risk Lexicon, at 38.
  2. ↑ Glossary of Defense Acquisition Acronyms and Terms (July 2011) (full-text).
  3. ↑ ISO/IEC 31000:2009, at §2.1.
  4. ↑ Playbook: Enterprise Risk Management for the U.S. Federal Government, at 103.
  5. ↑ ICS-CERT, Common Cyber Security Language (full-text).
  6. ↑ DHS Risk Lexicon, at 38.
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